Democrats hold key advantages over Republicans in suburban battlegrounds as the November elections approach, according to new polling by a GOP-friendly group.
The survey, conducted for political nonprofit organization N2America and shared with the Washington Examiner, revealed that suburban voters prefer Democrats over Republicans by 20 percentage points on healthcare, an issue they rank higher than the economy, and by more than 15 points on prescription drug pricing.
Suburban demographics also portend challenges for President Trump and down-ticket Republicans this fall, with 65% claiming a bachelor’s degree or higher. This voting bloc fueled the Democratic wave in the 2018 midterm elections and has since continued to drift from the GOP.
But the N2America poll, produced by the GOP firm Echelon Insights, also held good news for Republicans. Suburban voters said the GOP does a better job than Democrats on the economy by an 18-point margin. The GOP was plus-19 over Democrats on national security. Sixty-seven percent of suburban voters said they were either “very” or “somewhat” confident about their personal financial situation.
“The GOP can and should be strong in the suburbs, but it requires a new approach to articulating an agenda that most suburban voters already agree with,” said Austin Chambers, the top strategist at the Republican State Leadership Committee, a group that works to elect Republicans to state legislatures. On Monday, Chambers participated in an N2America forum focused on developing strategies for reviving GOP fortunes in the suburbs.
The group’s Feb. 28 – March 3 poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters across dozens of the nation’s most hotly contested suburban strongholds, including Jefferson County, Colorado, adjacent to Denver; Maricopa County, Arizona, adjacent to Phoenix; Dallas County, Iowa, adjacent to Des Moines; Harris County, Texas, adjacent to Houston; and Orange County, California. In 2018, the Republicans lost seats in Congress in these and other major suburbs after years of electoral dominance.
The poll was conducted prior to the spread of the coronavirus in the United States. Among its key findings:
- Suburban voters believe Democrats have done a better job than Republicans addressing climate change. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy has acknowledged that this issue has become more important to voters and is working with Republican colleagues on a climate change legislative agenda.
- Forty-eight percent of suburban voters are “highly worried” about losing current federal insurance protections for preexisting medical conditions. Trump has worked hard to counter Democratic claims that he would repeal this regulation, which was codified under Obamacare, a law the president is still vowing to undo.
- Slightly more suburban voters identify as Democrats (36%) than Republicans (34%). Twenty-seven percent describe themselves as independents.
Hoping to improve the Republican Party’s performance this November, Rep. Ann Wagner relaunched the dormant Suburban Caucus in the House to push legislation that appeals to those voters. Wagner represents a district in suburban St. Louis that is targeted by Democrats. “Time and time again, I hear from families when I’m back home in St. Louis that they don’t want to talk politics or rehash what’s on cable news,” the Missouri congresswoman said.
Republican lawmakers from suburban strongholds have a particular challenge that they would rather not discuss: Trump. College-educated suburbanites, women in particular, are generally dissatisfied with the way the president comports himself. Republicans are hoping a strong economy is enough to compensate, if it is not derailed by a coronavirus downturn.
N2America was founded and is run by a trio of veteran female Republican operatives.
