US delivers ultimatum to Afghan government as withdrawal deadline looms. It is not received well

MAKE PEACE NOW, US STILL CONSIDERING EXIT: In separate letters to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, who leads the government’s peace negotiations, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is warning the Afghan government that it faces a full withdrawal of U.S. and NATO troops in seven weeks and urges accelerated peace talks to reach a power-sharing agreement with the Taliban.

“Although we have not yet completed our review of the way ahead, we have reached an initial conclusion that the best way to advance our shared interests is to do all we can to accelerate peace talks and to bring all parties into compliance with their commitments,” Blinken writes in the letter to Ghani, which was first reported and published by Afghanistan’s Tolo News.

The letter contains a stark warning in its closing paragraph, that without U.S. military forces, the U.S.-backed Afghan government will be in increased peril. “I am making this clear to you so that you understand the urgency of my tone,” Blinken says. “We are considering the full withdrawal of our forces by May 1st, as we consider other options. Even with the continuation of financial assistance from the United States to your forces after an American military withdrawal, I am concerned that the security situation will worsen and that the Taliban could make rapid territorial gains.”

WHAT THE US IS PROPOSING: Blinken says the U.S. is planning to ask Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran, India, and Turkey to work with the United States to find a “unified approach” to support the Afghan peace process. Turkey will also be asked to host a senior-level meeting of both sides in the coming weeks “to finalize a peace agreement.”

The ambitious U.S. plan includes a proposed 90-day “reduction-in-violence” agreement, which is intended to prevent a spring offensive by the Taliban, as well as a written “roadmap for the peace process,” which is aimed at “accelerating discussions on a negotiated settlement and ceasefire,” that will be shared with both sides by Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation.

“I urge you to positively consider the proposal,” Blinken writes. “In sharing these documents, we do not intend to dictate terms to the parties. Rather, the documents will enable the Islamic Republic and the Taliban to move urgently.”

THE AFGHAN GOVERNMENT REACTION: Muhammad Mohaqiq, a prominent Afghan politician who is a political and security adviser to Ghani, said Blinken’s language was “bossy,” according to Tolo News, and said a “bossy” peace is not possible. “The people of Afghanistan will make a decision on their own when it comes to peace,” Mohaqiq said.

Afghan First Vice President Amrullah Saleh sounded a defiant tone in remarks broadcast on television. “We are neither concerned about [Secretary Blinken’s] letter nor it has changed our position,” Saleh said. “We thank the U.S. for its support. They can make decision on their troops, not on the people of #Afghanistan.”

“We understand that peace is a need for us. No one will stand against peace. We will make peace with dignity,” Saleh said, but he added, “We will never accept a coerced and imposed peace.”

At the same event, Abdullah Abdullah, the chairman of the High Council for National Reconciliation, had a more measured response. “Although I don’t want to defend the letter, there are important issues that have been brought up in it,” he said. “No one can impose anything on the people of Afghanistan.”

Meanwhile, Mohammad Naeem, a spokesman for the Taliban in Doha, said the group had received a copy of the power-sharing plan proposed by the U.S. “It is under discussion [and] after discussion, we will have a position on it,” Naeem said, according to the Washington Post.

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HAPPENING TODAY: At 1 p.m., President Biden and Veterans Affairs Secretary Denis McDonough visit a veterans medical center in Washington, D.C., that is administering COVID-19 vaccines.

Later at the White House, Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will deliver remarks on International Women’s Day. Also attending the 4:20 p.m. event in the State Dining Room will be Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks and two women generals who will be nominated to head combatant commands: Air Force Gen. Jacqueline Van Ovost to lead the Transportation Command and Army Lt. Gen. Laura Richardson to head the U.S. Southern Command.

ALSO NOMINATED: The Pentagon also announced Saturday that Austin has nominated Adm. John Aquilino to head U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and Vice Adm. Samuel Paparo to get his fourth star and serve as commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.

SMITH: ‘LET’S JUST SPEND THE GODDAMNED MONEY EFFECTIVELY’: House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith, a Washington state Democrat, says he’s tired of debating the size of the Pentagon budget, which he said at a Brookings Institution event Friday is “substantively, this is about the least important question that we could talk about.”

“Politically is a different matter, but substantively, and this is what drives me insane, how you spend the money is what matters.”

Smith’s remarks come as most experts, looking at soaring deficits and billions of federal dollars going to coronavirus relief, are predicting a flat defense budget for this year and probably a few years after that. And it follows a letter sent last week by Republicans on Smith’s committee to President Biden calling for an increase of 3% to 5% above inflation in the base defense budget “to stay ahead of evolving threats from our adversaries.”

“The one big thing that really frustrates me about this is when it comes to coming up with national security policy, there is a desire to sort of focus on easily quantifiable things. Well, how do you know you have the right defense policy? Well, we’re spending a lot of money,” Smith said. “And this is a major problem in the Pentagon. For too long, if you want to know whether or not you’re tough on defense, we measured it by one thing, how much money you’re spending.”

Smith says the big problem is the acquisition process is broken and focuses too much on how much money is allocated to a program and not the results.

“You know, of all the big-ticket items, the one that always drives me crazy is the JTRS [Joint Tactical Radio System] radio. Ten years. Ten freaking years to build a radio that by the time it got done didn’t work that much better, and stuff we could have gone down and bought at Radio Shack. Slight exaggeration but not much,” he says. “We reward people for process, not for results. We wind up tolerating failure on a massive freaking scale. Think F-35.”

“So, can we all just sort of get off of this epic fight over whether or not it’s 3% or 5% or 1% or whatever, and let’s just spend the goddamned money effectively, see where we’re at, and then we can talk about how much we’re going to spend.”

SPEAKING OF THE F-35: “I want to stop throwing money down that particular rat hole,” Smith said of the Pentagon’s most expensive weapons program ever. “Can’t get rid of the program, for those Lockheed fans listening, I do understand that,” he said at the Brookings event.

“But you know, telling us, ‘Well,’ — I do, I love this argument — ‘Well, I know it doesn’t work particularly well, but if you have bought more, your per-unit costs would go down.’ That’s just, that’s awesome. And I respect that from a business standpoint, but ultimately it drives us into the ground,” Smith said. “So what I’m going to try to do is figure out how we can get a mix of fighter attack aircraft that’s the most cost-effective, bottom line. OK. And I’m telling you right now that a big part of that is finding something that doesn’t make us have to rely on the F-35 for the next 35 years.”

AUSTIN’S FIRST INTERVIEW: As he promised, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made his first appearance on a Sunday news show, sitting down with ABC’s Martha Raddatz on This Week.

Here are some highlights:

On Saudi Arabia: “Our president has been clear that we will have a different type of relationship with the Saudis going forward. And it doesn’t mean that it won’t be a good relationship. I fully expect that it will be a good relationship, but it will be a bit different … Certainly, we have security commitments in that area. And it’s necessary that we’re going to have to work together to make sure that we achieve our goals and objectives. But I think, just because you have a good strategic relationship with an ally or partner, it doesn’t mean that you can’t hold them accountable for various things.”

On the rocket attacks against US troops in Iraq: “You can expect that we will always hold people accountable for their acts. We want to make sure that, again, we understand who’s responsible for this. The message to those that would carry out such an attack is that: Expect us to do what’s necessary to defend ourselves. We will strike, if that’s what we think we need to do, at a time and place of our own choosing. We demand the right to protect our troops.”

On rooting out extremism in the ranks: “This is not about political parties or political beliefs. This is behavior that can really tear at the fabric of our institution. And so we want to make sure that our troops are reminded of what our values are, reminded of the oath that we took coming in. And my belief, my strong belief, Martha, is that 99.9% of our troops embrace those values and are focused on the right things and are doing the right things each and every day.”

On countering China: “China has been busy modernizing its military and developing capabilities and trying to close the competitive edge that we have always enjoyed. They have also been very aggressive in the region. In some cases, they have been coercive. And some of that coercion has been directed against our allies. And our allies are very important to us.”

MORE B-52s FLY NEAR IRAN: With no U.S. aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf at the moment, the U.S. is continuing to fly nuclear-capable strategic bombers to the region to send a message to Iran.

The U.S. Central Command says several Middle East nations joined a pair of U.S. B-52 bombers on a show of force mission over the weekend, including fighter aircraft from Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.

“A pair of U.S. Air Force B-52H Stratofortresses flew a multinational patrol mission across the Middle East today to deter aggression and reassure partners and allies of the U.S. military’s commitment to security in the region,” said a release from CENTCOM.

This was the fourth bomber deployment into the Middle East this year.

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The Rundown

THE RUNDOWN:

Washington Examiner: Lloyd Austin: ‘We demand the right to protect our troops’ after missile strike in Iraq

Washington Examiner: No end in sight for Capitol fortress

Washington Examiner: Trump defense officials should testify on slow Capitol riot response, Michigan Democrat says

Washington Examiner: Top House Armed Services Democrat warns of ‘stumbling into a cold war with China’

Washington Examiner: Biden administration warns about Microsoft email hack that company blamed on China

Washington Examiner: US taking ‘whole of government response’ to apparent China-backed Microsoft hack

Washington Examiner: Dan Crenshaw shares videos of him touring border in a helicopter, says situation is ‘unstable’

Washington Examiner: Exclusive — ‘Reception centers’: Biden eyes friendlier name for new migrant facilities

Washington Examiner: Iran’s proxies fume as Pope Francis meets Shia leader in Iraq

AP: US and South Korea agree on new cost-sharing deal for troops

Washington Post: Houthis Claim Attack On Saudi Oil Facilities

AP: Oil prices surge after attack on Saudi oil site

Defense News: Give Taiwan ‘Consistent’ Arms Sales, Says U.S. Regional Commander

AP: China Tells Biden To Reverse ‘Dangerous Practice’ On Taiwan

CNN: China Has Built The World’s Largest Navy. Now What’s Beijing Going To Do With It?

Military Times: Pentagon To Help Stand Up 10 More COVID Mass Vaccination Sites, Mission Could Last Much Of 2021

New York Times: Preparing For Retaliation Against Russia, U.S. Confronts Hacking By China

Air Force Magazine: USAF Planning Boss Pushes for Flexible Budgets to Keep Up with New Tech

Task & Purpose: The Navy tried to cast Capt. Brett Crozier as a villain. New emails reveal how much support he really had

AP: Australia suspends defense training with Myanmar after coup

Air Force Magazine: Air Force’s Weapon Swarming Project Fares Better in Second Test

19fortyfive.com: Guam: The Foundation Of Any U.S. Military Strategy On China

19fortyfive.com: Why Were Three Rare B-2 Bombers Flying Over Utah?

Calendar

MONDAY | MARCH 8

9 a.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association virtual Technology Modernization and Innovation Conference, with Paul Puckett, director of the Army’s Enterprise Cloud Management Office; and Army CIO Raj Iyer. https://afcea.informz.net

10 a.m. — Secretary of State Antony Blinken hosts the 2021 International Women of Courage Award virtual ceremony honoring “extraordinary women from around the world,” including an posthumous award to seven women leaders and activists from Afghanistan who were assassinated “for their dedication to improving the lives of Afghans.” First lady Jill Biden delivers remarks. Livestream at https://www.state.gov

10 a.m. — The German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion: “NATO 2030: United for a New Era,” with German Bundestag Member Thomas de Maiziere; Wess Mitchell, vice chairman of the Center for European Policy Analysis’ Board of Directors; Marta Dassu, senior European affairs director at the Aspen Institute; and Ian Lesser, GMFUS vice president. https://www.gmfus.org/events/nato

1 p.m. — National Defense Industrial Association and the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command two-day virtual Pacific Operational Science and Technology Conference, with Air Force Lt. Gen. Michael Minihan, deputy commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; George Ka’iliwai, requirements and resources director at the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; Philip Perconti, deputy assistant Army secretary for research and technology; Joan Johnson, deputy assistant Navy secretary for research, development, test and engineering; Terence Emmert, performing the duties of the Defense undersecretary for research and engineering, principal deputy director of defense research and engineering for advanced capabilities; Chief of Naval Research Rear Adm. Lorin Selby; Mike Monteleone, director of the Army’s Space and Terrestrial Communications Directorate; and Derek Tournear, director of the Space Development Agency. https://www.ndia.org/events

2 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual International Women’s Day discussion with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and Jonathan Capehart, Washington Post opinions writer. https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

5:15 p.m. — Hoover Institution at Stanford University virtual International Women’s Day discussion with former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, director of the Hoover Institution; former Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control Rose Gottemoeller, Hoover Institution research fellow; Elizabeth Economy, Hoover Institution senior fellow and Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow for China studies; Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Hoover Institution research fellow and former member of the Dutch Parliament; and Amy Zegart, Hoover Institution senior fellow and professor of political science at Stanford University. https://stanford.zoom.us/webinar/register

6 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual Chuck Hagel Forum in Global Leadership on “the role of U.S. leadership in a changing world, with former Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel; and former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event

TUESDAY | MARCH 9

10 a.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Rocky Mountain Chapter holds two-day virtual Cyberspace Symposium, with Air Force Lt. Gen. Chris Weggeman, deputy commander of the Air Combat Command; and Deputy Air Force CIO Lauren Knausenberger. https://www.eventsquid.com/event

12:15 p.m. — New America virtual book discussion on The Hardest Place: The American Military Adrift in Afghanistan’s Pech Valley, with author Wesley Morgan; Emma Sky, senior fellow at the Jackson Institute for Global Affairs; and David Sterman, senior policy analyst in New America’s International Security Program. https://www.newamerica.org/international-security

1 p.m. — Day Two of the National Defense Industrial Association and the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command virtual Pacific Operational Science and Technology Conference, with Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Acting Director Peter Highnam; John Garnaut, senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute; Dana Johnson, international outreach and policy director in the Office of the Defense Undersecretary for Research and Development; Michael Vaccaro, international armaments cooperation director in the Office of the Defense Undersecretary for Acquisition and Sustainment, and Adam Frost, senior vice president for China and transformational exports at the Export – Import Bank of the United States. https://www.ndia.org/events

2:15 p.m. — Fed Supernova virtual event with Air Force Lt. Gen. John Shaw, deputy commander, U.S. Space Command. https://emamo.com/event/fed-supernova

3 p.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “The future of U.S.-Pakistan relations, with Pakistani Ambassador to the U.S. Asad Majeed Khan. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event

WEDNESDAY | MARCH 10

9 a.m. — Day one of three-day Ottawa Conference on Security of Defense with U.S. Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Air Force Gen. John Hyten at 1 p.m. https://cdainstitute.ca/ottawa-conference-2021

9 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center webinar: “North Korea Beyond the Six Parties: Examining Ties with Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Southeast Asia,” with Hoo Chiew-Ping, senior lecturer at the National University of Malaysia; Alon Levkowitz, lecturer at Bar-Ilan University; Ramon Pacheco Pardo, reader in international relations at King’s College London; Andreea Zaharia, associate researcher at the Romanian Institute for the Study of the Asia-Pacific; and Jenny Town, deputy director of 38 North. https://www.stimson.org/event/north-korea

10 a.m. — Day two the Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Rocky Mountain Chapter virtual Cyberspace Symposium, with Erin Miller, executive director of the Space Information Sharing and Analysis Center; and Air Force Lt. Gen. John Thompson, commander of the Space Force Space and Missile Systems Center; Maj. Gen. Stephen Whiting, commander of Air Force Space Command. https://www.eventsquid.com/event

10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar with State Department Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction John Sopko; and Anthony Cordesman, chair in strategy at CSIS. https://www.csis.org/events

11 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “National Security Challenges and U.S. Military Activities in the Indo-Pacific,” with David Helvey, acting assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific affairs; Adm. Philip Davidson, commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; and Gen. Robert Abrams, commander, United Nations Command, Combined Forces Command, and U.S. Forces Korea.

12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report” webinar with Lt. Gen. Laura Potter, deputy chief of staff for intelligence. https://info.ausa.org/e/784783/Noon-Report

2:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar: “The Army’s Next-Generation Vehicle,” with Brig. Gen. Richard Coffman, director of Army Futures Command’s Next-Generation Combat Vehicle Cross-Functional Team. https://www.csis.org/events/armys-next-generation-combat-vehicle

3 p.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual event: “Lessons from the West Capella Incident: Successful Naval Presence in the South China Sea,” with David Stilwell, former assistant secretary of state for east asian and pacific affairs; and Brent Sadler, Brent Sadler, senior fellow for naval warfare and advanced technology, Heritage. https://www.heritage.org/asia/event

4 p.m. — Institute of World Politics virtual lecture: “Seventy years of Chinese Strategic Intelligence Threats,” with former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Kenneth deGraffenreid, fellow in intelligence studies at the American Foreign Policy Council. https://www.iwp.edu/events/webinar

4:30 p.m. — Intelligence National Security Alliance virtual “Wednesday Wisdom” discussion with Dave Frederick, executive director of U.S. Cyber Command. https://www.insaonline.org/event

4:45 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittees on Readiness and Military Personnel Joint hearing: “Privatized Military Family Housing: Update on Implementation of Housing Reforms,” with Rick Taylor, president, facilities, operation and construction, Balfour Beatty Communities; Carolyn Tregarthen, managing director, Lendlease Americas; retired Army Maj. Gen. Al Aycock, Military Partnership Executive, Corvias Group LLC. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

THURSDAY | MARCH 11

9:30 a.m. G50, Dirksen — Senate Armed Service Committee hearing to receive “Final Recommendations and Report of National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service,” with Joseph Heck, chairman, Debra Wada, vice chair; and Alan Khazei, commissioner, National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings

11 a.m. — National Taxpayers Union and R Street Zoom webinar: “Pentagon Purse Strings Episode 3: An Interview with Lisa Hershman, former Chief Management Officer of the Pentagon,” with Jonathan Bydlak, R Street Institute; Andrew Lautz, National Taxpayers Union; Mark Cancian, senior adviser with the CSIS International Security Program. https://rstreet-org.zoom.us/webinar/register

11:30 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual Aerospace Nation event: “Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Forum,” with Mark Schneider, senior analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy; and Stephen Blank, senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org

1:30 p.m. — Georgetown University’s Bridge Initiative virtual discussion: “The Human Cost of Guantanamo Bay,” with Mohamedou Ould Slahi, author of Guantanamo Diary and Nancy Hollander, attorney for Mohamedou Ould Slahi. https://www.georgetown.edu/event

2 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual book discussion: The Hardest Place: The American Military Adrift in Afghanistan’s Pech Valley, with author Wesley Morgan. https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-book-discussion

3:30 p.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conference call conversation with Gen. James McConville, chief of staff of the Army. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu/events

3:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “Future Foreign Policy,” focusing on nuclear weapons, with Rep. Ted Lieu, D-Calif.; and Alexandra Toma, executive director of the Peace and Security Funders Group. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event

4 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Personnel hearing: “Military Criminal Investigative Organization Reform Recommendations from the Fort Hood Independent Review Committee,” with Christopher Swecker, chairman, Fort Hood Independent Review Committee; Carrie Ricci, member, Fort Hood Independent Review Committee; Andrew Bland, former FBI special agent in charge, consultant for the Fort Hood Independent Review Committee; and Mary Counts, Former FBI supervisory special agent, consultant for the Fort Hood Independent Review Committee. A second panel will include Maj. Gen. Donna Martin, provost marshal general and commanding general, U.S. Army Criminal Investigation Command; Brig Gen. Terry Bullard, commander, Air Force Office of Special Investigations; and Omar Lopez, director, Naval Criminal Investigative Service. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

6 p.m. — Politics and Prose Bookstore virtual book discussion on 2034: A Novel of the Next World War with co-authors former Supreme NATO Commander Adm. James Stavridis, and co-author Elliot Ackerman. https://www.politics-prose.com/event/book

FRIDAY | MARCH 12

9:30 a.m. — Middle East Institute virtual discussion: “U.S. policies toward the Middle East during the Trump administration and lessons learned,” with former Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Simone Ledeen. https://www.mei.edu/events

12 p.m. — McCain Institute virtual book discussion on Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi, and the Battle for the Twenty-First Century, with author Josh Rogin, columnist at the Washington Post. https://www.mccaininstitute.org/news/josh-rogin

12:30 p.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Polar Institute webinar: “Climate Security Risks in the Arctic,” with Norwegian Ambassador to the U.S. Anniken Ramberg Krutnes, Nina Borgen, deputy director of the Norwegian Security Policy and Operations Department’s Security Policy Analysis Section; former Deputy Defense Undersecretary for Environmental Security Sherri Goodman, senior fellow at the WWC Polar Institute; Ole Jacob Sending, director of research at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs; Shiloh Fetzek, senior fellow for international affairs at the Center for Climate and Security; John Conger, director of the Center for Climate and Security; Kate Guy, senior research fellow at the Center for Climate and Security; Marisol Maddox, Arctic analyst at the WWC Polar Institute; and Michael Sfraga, director of the WWC Polar Institute. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/climate-security-risks-arctic

2 p.m. — Brookings Institution webinar: “The Needs of Women Veterans,” with Rep. Julia Brownley, D-Calif.; Jen Silva, chief program officer at the Wounded Warrior Project; Tracy Farrell, vice president for engagement and physical health wellness at the Wounded Warrior Project; and Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow at Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/events