With Democrats coming out in droves announcing their 2020 presidential bids, pollsters have begun to publish the results of head-to-head match-ups against President Trump. According to the latest from Public Policy Polling, former Vice President Joe Biden leads the pack, beating Trump 53-41, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., at 51-41. Candidates who have already announced also lead Trump: Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., at 48-41; Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., at 48-42; and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., at 47-42.
All of this is to say that Bernie would’ve won. Biden would have, too. In fact, there’s a case to be made that almost anyone would have beaten Trump in 2016 except for Hillary Clinton.
If Biden had run in 2016, it seems obvious that he would have maintained the Blue Wall and perhaps retained Florida if he had been running against Trump. Although Biden’s background is hardly flawless, he’s a known entity with a fraction of Clinton’s baggage. He would have entered the race as the most popular candidate by far, with a whopping plus-12 approval rating as opposed to Clinton’s minus-8 and Trump’s minus-33.
Trump is both in a significantly weaker and stronger position than he was two years ago. To his disadvantage, he’s no longer running against the single most corrupt and unlikeable candidate in modern American politics. Sure, Warren has the charisma of your middle school principle, and Harris a cop. But their flaws pale in comparison to 10,000 pounds of baggage brought by the Clinton camp.
But on the other hand, Democrats have spent the last three years overplaying their hand. We were told that Trump would bring “The Handmaid’s Tale,” economic destruction, climate catastrophe, and nuclear war to America, in that order. Sure, Trump has tweeted insane obscenities and started a little trade war with China, but for the most part, things have been OK. And in some arenas, such as employment, judicial appointees, and criminal justice reform, they’ve actually been pretty good.
Has Trump degraded the Oval Office? Sure, but that’s a sunk cost. Electing a Democrat in 2020 won’t undo four years of panic and pandering from the Oval Office. However, it could bring single-payer healthcare, multitrillion-dollar spending packages, an amped-up war on religion (this week has been very instructive in that regard), and an amped-up regulatory state. The Democratic Party has moved far enough to the Left that a sufficient number of Republican, conservative, and working-class white Democratic voters may once again hold their noses and vote Trump.
The candidates attempting to ride the Bernie wave have cornered themselves, in a sense. While Sanders has embraced economic tribalism, he’s remained mostly neutral to the intersectional tribalism that has plagued the Democratic Party. It’s hard to imagine anyone who voted for Trump swinging for Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., or worse, O’Rourke.
But Sanders or Biden could do it. And in 2016, they definitely would have.
