Michael Gaynor
Krauthammer's personal disdain for Trump skewed his view of Wisconsin primary results a bit
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By Michael Gaynor
April 11, 2016

In Wisconsin, Cruz got about a third more votes than Trump got. In New York, Trump will get in the range of three times as many votes as Cruz will get.

Charles Krauhammer's column on the Wisconsin Republican presidential primary began this way:

"Yes, the big Wisconsin story is Ted Cruz's crushing 13-point victory. And yes, it greatly improves his chances of denying Donald Trump a first-ballot convention victory, which may turn out to be Trump's only path to the nomination. Nonetheless, the most stunning result of Wisconsin is the solidity of Trump's core constituency."

Yes, "the solidarity of Trump's core constituency" is "the most stunning result of Wisconsin."

No, "Cruz's 13-point victory" is NOT "crushing."

It seemed from the early returns that Cruz might have a 23-point victory, but that was not to be.

Krauthammer acknowledges that Trump "managed to get a full 35" and then explained why that was stunning:

"He was opposed by a very popular GOP governor (80 percent approval among Republicans) with a powerful state organization honed by winning three campaigns within four years (two gubernatorial, one recall). He was opposed by popular, local, well-informed radio talk-show hosts whose tough interviews left him in shambles. Tons of money was dumped into negative ads not just from the Cruz campaign and the pro-Cruz super PACs but from two anti-Trump super PACs as well.

"And if that doesn't leave a candidate flattened, consider that Trump was coming off two weeks of grievous self-inflicted wounds – and still got more than a third of the vote. Which definitively vindicated Trump's boast that if he ever went out in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shot someone (most likely because his Twitter went down – he'd be apprehended in his pajamas), he wouldn't lose any voters."

Hyperbole aside, the key facts are:

1. Cruz got 48% of the Wisconsin Republican primary vote, 4% more than he got in his adopted home state, Texas, which he currently represents in the United States Senate.

2. Trump got 35% of the Wisconsin Republican primary vote, 8% more than he got in the Texas Republican primary, and Wisconsin borders on Canada, where Cruz was born.

Krauthammer says that "[t]he question for Trump has always been how far he could reach beyond his solid core.

On April 19, we'll find out when the results of the New York Republican presidential primary come in.

Predictions:

1. Trump will do what Cruz failed to do in Texas – win a majority in his home state.

2. John Kasich, who has lost ever contest except in his home state (Ohio), will beat Cruz.

3. Cruz will be hard pressed to win 20% of the vote.

4. Trump's victory over Kasich will be "crushing" or "flattening."

5. Trump's victory over Cruz will be pulverizing.

In Wisconsin, Cruz got about a third more votes than Trump got. In New York, Trump will get in the range of three times as many votes as Cruz will get.

© Michael Gaynor

 

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Michael Gaynor

Michael J. Gaynor has been practicing law in New York since 1973. A former partner at Fulton, Duncombe & Rowe and Gaynor & Bass, he is a solo practitioner admitted to practice in New York state and federal courts and an Association of the Bar of the City of New York member... (more)

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