Huckabee plays defense

By Adam Graham

I read a very interesting article on February 20th that pointed out the campaign of Mike Huckabee was in trouble, as it hadn't won a state since February 9th, a whopping 11 days prior over a span that included five primaries.

Of course, were the Huckabee campaign making plans based on winning Virginia, Maryland, DC, Washington State, or Wisconsin, one would have to question the sanity of Campaign Manager Ed Rollins. Texas has long been pointed to as the key. A neighboring state to Huckabee's home state of Arkansas. Huckabee had actually lived in Texas for four years. The State's large population of Religious Conservatives, and its status as the home of Chuck Norris makes it the best spot for Huckabee to make his next big win. Odds are against him, but that's never stopped Huckabee before.

Getting There

To make it to Texas, Huckabee had to keep his campaign alive through the Potomac Primaries, Washington, and Wisconsin. There had to be signs of life going into Texas, and in this line-up of primaries that would be hard to achieve. All told, Huckabee's campaign did the best they could and have a shot at Texas.

February 12th's primaries in Virginia, DC, and Maryland. Maryland's GOP generally leaned left, particularly on social issues. DC's GOP was dominated by liberal Republicans and establishment insiders. Virginia is perhaps the least conservative state in the South, with a very strong establishment wing that has elected a bane of conservatives, Senator John Warner, to five terms in the US Senate.

So, on February 12, Huckabee's primary focus was on Virginia. He turned a 32 point deficit after Super Tuesday into a 9-point loss, making up 23 points in record time. Huckabee won several congressional districts in Virginia, but as the state was winner-take-all, this didn't matter towards the delegate count.

Next up was Washington and Wisconsin. Washington's primary was mail-in and several weeks worth of voting having already completed, Huckabee had little chance to make an impact. Given that 10 of the 19 delegates won that day would be divied up proportionally and 1 each given to the winner of each of Washington's 9 Congressional districts, there was little reward to campaigning there. No matter what, he'd pick up 2-3 delegates Statewide, and the chances of swaying a delegate in any of the congressional districts was narrow. Instead, Huckabee focused on Wisconsin, and while Huckabee lost statewide, his campaign won a contiguous fifteen county area (Hucksconsin if you will) including two congressional districts and has apparently won all six delegates from District 3 and 7. Now, he looks ahead to Texas, and to a lesser extent, Ohio.

Huckabee has said winning Texas changes everything, and it does. A win in Texas will make McCain's job of getting to 1191 harder for McCain to do before the convention. McCain has heretofore done very well in Blue States. After March 4th, the only Blue States remaining to vote are Pennsylvania and Oregon. On the other hand, Red States abound: Mississippi, Indiana, North Carolina, Nebraska, Kentucky, Idaho, New Mexico, and South Dakota. A Huckabee win in Texas gives rise to the hope of political junkies the nation over, a brokered convention, a real convention in Minneapolis in September, along with a real debate over the party's future.

© Adam Graham