Adam Graham
April 7, 2008
The optimistic fatalist
By Adam Graham

In a recent telephone conversation with my brother, he accused me of being a fatalist.

I said with a smile, "Nonsense, I'm not a fatalist, I just believe the outcome of the presidential race is certain."

While many of my fellow conservatives have excitedly viewed the travails of Barack Obama as an omen of Republican victories in the Fall, I've remained steadfast in my conclusion that John McCain will not win the White House.

This is not a prediction based on political principles or my dislike for John McCain, but my honest analysis of the situation. One can advocate for any longshot idea you want when expressing an opinion. However, I view analysis as a separate category. When you analyze something, you have to talk about what is or your analysis is little more than wishful thinking.

I think Barack Obama would be an absolutely dreadful president. I don't want him to be president, but I think he will be. Here's why.

The Fundamentals

Amateur stock investors dive in and out of stocks every day based on the stock's temporary performance. Experienced long-term investors make their decisions based on the long term fundamentals of companies.

Many political prognosticators are moved to extremes by every event of the campaign. April events and April poll numbers are ultimately irrelevant. I couldn't care less if McCain's leading Pennsylvania and New Jersey this time of the year. You can find polls from both 2000 and 2004 showing Bush leading those states far later in the year, and he lost both. You can find many polls showing John Kerry leading the election taken throughout 2004.

The question then is, "What are the fundamentals?" Professor Allan Lichtman devised a prediction model called, "The 13 Keys" that accurately predicted the popular vote results of every election from 1984 on and "retrospectively accurately account for the popular vote winners of every presidential election from 1860 through 1980."

Lichtman's keys represent a barometer of the current political situation. If six or more of the 13 factors Lichtman examines are against the incumbent party, than the challenger party will take the White House. By my count, there are seven factors against the GOP right now: The loss of Congress in the 2006 mid-terms, Our nominee not being the incumbent, a battle for the incumbent party nomination, the failure to achieve significant policy change in the past four years, the failure of the pre-Surge Iraq Policy (you want to debate this, don't debate me, debate John McCain, he's proclaimed it a thousand times), the downturn in our short term economy, and the presence of a Charismatic candidate at the top of the Democratic ticket. There's also a potential for an eighth key to be turned in the person of third party candidates (more on that later.)

The Fundamentals are bad for Republicans. I can't go around with a straight face and proclaim: An unpopular war + an economic downturn=Republican victory.

The Candidates

Let's evaluate the personal qualities of the candidates, as well as their campaign style, as style matters a lot to the American people. Obama is better at retail campaigning, debates, and pure oratory abilities. McCain is known for being cranky at best, and not as personable. Objectively looking at presidential candidates of the last 32 years strictly from their raw performance data, it seems that Obama's talents are above every candidate nominated by either party except for Reagan and Clinton, while McCain's are below Bob Dole's, and on par with Gerald Ford's, and above only Dukakis and Mondale.

Money

Barack Obama will not need federal funds this fall. He raised $55 million in February, $40 million in March. McCain has raised $64 million from the day he announced through the end of February, and fundraising is sluggish compared to the Obama juggernaut.

Now, it appears that McCain plans on taking federal matching funds for the general which will limit his spending to $84 million during the Fall Campaign. Centrist Blogger James Joyner upon learning of McCain's scheme suggested that he quit now and save the taxpayers $42 million.

The Enthusiasm Factor

In 2000, Florida ended up a 537 vote nailbiter because Bush's brain's calculations were off, way off. Rove expected 2 million more Evangelicals at the polls than actually showed up. However, Rove learned his lessons and in 2004, the surprise winning factor for Bush was the Values voter.

From this experience, we can say that there exists a class of Americans, many Values Voters, for whom enthusiasm is the issue. Even in the midst of the debauched Clinton era, these people couldn't be cajoled to the polls, but thanks to an effective outreach and Bush's conservative 2004 platform, they showed up in force.

This time, James Dobson is not endorsing, and, unless McCain switches on Embryonic Stem Cell research, don't expect that to change. In the end, Republicans can only win a national election if they get the votes of Religious people for whom missing an election is not a big deal.

Third Parties

Obama has Ralph Nader to worry about, but John McCain has much larger challenges. From his right, he's facing potential campaigns from Bob Barr in the Libertarian Party and Alan Keyes in the Constitution Party.

Keyes is an articulate opponent who can challenge McCain for the votes of Social Conservatives. He could get 1-2% of the vote this Fall given Social Conservative dissatisfaction. As dangerous, if not more so, is internal Constitution Party Roy Moore, who is a folk hero to many Christians after losing his office over the judge's defense of the Ten Commandments.

Barr is Ron Paul minus the baggage of racist newsletters and plus an even more conservative (98% ACU rating) voting record. Barr could easily inherit much of Ron Paul's fundraising base. A January 29th Rasmussen poll showed that in a 3-way race between Obama, McCain, and Paul, Ron Paul would get 11% of the vote. Even if the combined Barr/Keyes or Moore effort got half that (or 6% of the vote), it's huge trouble for McCain.

As for Camp Obama, how big a problem is Nader? Rejoicing conservatives overstated the potential damage by Nader. While Nader won nearly 3% of the vote in 2000, in 2004, he won 0.38% of the vote. This year, his numbers may crater further. This goes along with the trend we saw in the right in 1992 where right-leaning third parties got 19.4% of the vote in 1992, 9.1% in 1996, and 0.87% in 2000. A general rule, the longer a major party is out of power, the more likely Americans who might choose a third party are to hold their nose and back the majority party candidate. For those on the Right, we can imagine how bad Hillary and Obama might be, but we're not living through it. Despite all the blunderbuss right now, most Democrats will pull the level for Obama. Four more years of the Republicans simply won't be an option.

Summary

So, Republicans have a poor economy, an unpopular war, a lousy campaigner with little money, an unenthused base, and face two third party campaigns that will eat into their margins, what can Republicans and conservatives do?

The good news about the Obama campaign is that Obama feeds into the anti-incumbent mood of the moment rather than a pro-Democratic mood, and that can cut both ways, similar to Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign which netted the Democrats a 10 seat loss in the House. As Democrats have more House incumbents, including many who are what Tip O'Neill would call, "Congressmen by Accident" who won due to the lousy situation in 2006, there are opportunities for Republicans to gain seats. While retirements must be giving National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Tom Cole (R-OK) a headache, most of these retirees had forgotten why they were sent to Washington in the first place, and if they hadn't become corrupt, they'd become incompetent and ineffective. New blood is needed and we'll get it. There are signs of life and hope everywhere: from Conservative Andy Harris' primary victory over left wing Rep. Wayne Gilchrist (R-MD) to the numerous conservative candidates around the country. I won't give a penny to McCain (I might well bet on the Tampa Bay Rays winning the World Series), but I will proudly support conservatives running local, state, and congressional campaigns.

Strong third party efforts may actually help the GOP down-ticket, as they helped Democrats in 2000 and Republican in 1992. I believe 2008 represents one of those events that have to happen, sooner or later. There's no way to keep the Democrats out of the White House forever, and losing it in 2008 would be no worse than losing it in 2012.

However, I fully believe that, if conservatives get their act together, we can make this time mercifully short. Of course, we could wander aimlessly for decades, but I'm not a pessimist.

© Adam Graham

 

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Adam Graham

Adam Graham was Montana State Coordinator for the Alan Keyes campaign in 2000, and in 2004 was a candidate for the Republican nomination for the Idaho State House... (more)

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