Alan Caruba
Worrying about China
FacebookTwitterGoogle+
By Alan Caruba
December 19, 2014


If there is one thing various experts and pundits like to do most it is to worry about all manner of speculative threats. I can recall when much of their focus was on the Soviet Union until 1991 when it collapsed along with the decline in the cost of oil. The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 signaled that it was no longer the feared power it had been.

Despite its invasion of Ukraine to annex the Crimea, the Russian Republic is in the same position its predecessor was because, once again, the price of a barrel of oil is falling. Turns out that the fracking technology that many environmentalists fear has also produced large increases in both oil and natural gas here in the U.S., that have created an oil glut that is driving its price down.

Largely unnoticed, however, have been the growing ties between Russia and China. They haven't been this friendly for a very long time. Even so, Communist China does not give any indication that it regards the U.S. as an "enemy" in the way Vladimir Putin does the European Union and NATO.

China has recently emerged as a larger economic power than the U.S., earning $17.8 trillion in terms of goods and services, compared to the U.S. $17.4 trillion. Not a great difference, but surely a symbolic one. China is a curiosity in that it has an authoritative Communist government and a burgeoning capitalist economy.

In 2013, China took steps to expand property rights (something that does not exist in Communist nations), expand fair and transparent market regulation, and prices set by the market.

When you have to govern more than 1.3 billion people, you have to find a way to lift as many as possible out of poverty. China's problem is that many of them are elderly thanks to its one-child policy. In 2013, China took tentative steps to loosen its one-child policy and it's a good guess they will get rid of it entirely at some point in the near future.

Examples of its economic power often make page one of The Wall Street Journal such as a December 9 article reporting that "In the past two years, Chinese investors have bought stakes in New York's most valuable office power, one of its largest development projects and the country's most expensive hotel ever sold." Should we worry about this? No, a few decades ago, such stories were about Japan's purchases of American properties and that nation has been in an economic stagnation for quite a while.

Back in 2008, Robert Samuelson, a Washington Post columnist, was worrying that "The real threat from China lies elsewhere. It is that China will destabilize the world economy. It will distort trade, foster huge financial imbalances, and tripper a contentious competition for scare raw materials." That's a pretty good description of what is being said about the United States today!

A new study by the Rand Corporation, "Blinders, Blunders, and Wars: What America and China Can Learn," devotes a chapter to U.S.-China relations saying "Whether and how the United States and China can settle their differences without war is among the most important questions of the twenty-first century." That has got to be one of the most presumptuous questions asked by the respected think tank. It borders on foolishness because there is no good reason why either nation would engage in a war on one another.

There is no question that China, the largest nation in Asia, has been flexing its muscles, building up its military capabilities, and seeking to expand its authority over the China Sea and adjacent areas. Any nation of its size would be expected to do the same thing. Even Russia is keeping its neighbors on edge with its Ukraine incursion, knowing perhaps that neither NATO nor the European Union would go to war over its complete takeover. The threat is there, but that does not mean it will occur.

The good news from Rand is their observation that war between the U.S. and China "could be catastrophic" and therefore "both powers are strongly inhibited from starting one." You do not need to be a think tank expert to figure that out, but the Rand study also says "The danger of Sino-U.S. war by misjudgment is related to but different from that of Sino-U.S. war by accident."

The study's reason for this is that "China sees America's East Asian alliances as throwback to Cold War thinking and, more alarmingly, as indicative of America's new intent to align the region against China." That's think tank talk for China's paranoia based on centuries of control and exploitation by outside forces such as the former British Empire, subjugation by the former Empire of Japan, and its fear of America's longtime naval presence in the Pacific.

China most certainly has nothing to fear regarding war with the current U.S. administration that doesn't want to even admit that it has reengaged in the war occurring in Iraq. In a similar way, the U.S. has no reason to disturb its financial dependence on a China that owns much of its debt.

Think tanks like Rand will not cease to worry about all the options and events that affect the China-U.S. relationship, but for the near future, there are other factors such as the threat the Islamic jihad represents. The only constant in international affairs is change.

© Alan Caruba

 

The views expressed by RenewAmerica columnists are their own and do not necessarily reflect the position of RenewAmerica or its affiliates.
(See RenewAmerica's publishing standards.)


Alan Caruba

(Editor's note: Alan Caruba passed away on June 15, 2015. You can read his obituary here.)

Best known these days as a commentator on issues ranging from environmentalism to energy, immigration to Islam, Alan Caruba is the author of two recent books, "Right Answers: Separating Fact from Fantasy" and "Warning Signs" -- both collections of his commentaries since 2000 and both published by Merril Press of Bellevue, Washington... (more)

Subscribe

Receive future articles by Alan Caruba: Click here

More by this author

 

Stephen Stone
'The fervent prayer of the righteous'

Siena Hoefling
Protect the Children: Update with VIDEO

Stephen Stone
Flashback: Dems' fake claim that Trump and Utah congressional hopeful Burgess Owens want 'renewed nuclear testing' blows up when examined

Jerry Newcombe
The Marxist move to cancel Jefferson

Selwyn Duke
The “equality” blues: Feminists cry foul when boys’ netball team wins girls’ tournament

Steve A. Stone
Taking today’s pulse

Jeff Lukens
A cyber-security option for the 2022 elections

Stone Washington
Revisiting the exciting travels of Marco Polo—850 years later, Part II

Judie Brown
Eucharistic madness

Pete Riehm
They really don’t care what we think!

R.T. Neary
Mark A. Milley – another Biden-era disgrace

Curtis Dahlgren
Critical Race "Theory" = "Divide and conquer"

Rev. Mark H. Creech
Since prophecy predicts things will get worse, why engage the culture?

Victor Sharpe
Why the Kurds deserve a state, not the Arabs who call themselves Palestinians

Jerry Newcombe
The primary stakeholder in schools: Parents or educrats?
  More columns

Cartoons


Click for full cartoon
More cartoons

RSS feeds

News:
Columns:

Columnists

Matt C. Abbott
Chris Adamo
Russ J. Alan
Bonnie Alba
Bob MacGuffie & Antony Stark
Chuck Baldwin
Kevin J. Banet
J. Matt Barber
. . .
[See more]

Sister sites