Dennis M. Howard
Abortion researcher predicts a tough time for Democrats for the next 40 years
By Dennis M. Howard
October 19, 2018

The current desperation of the Democrats reminds me of the guy falling past the 50th floor of the Empire State Building while reassuring himself, "So far, so good."

The only thing saving them from awareness of their own imminent disaster is their failure to recognize the disproportionate impact of abortion on vital Democrat voting blocks.

That's why they keep yelling and screaming and bumping their heads and threatening to riot. They don't yet understand what has hit them as a result of their pro-abortion policies.

However, as a market researcher and a former Democrat, I have been tracking the abortion numbers since 1992, and my latest findings are bad news indeed for the Democrats.

For the first time in 26 years, I can confidently predict, based on abortion trends, that the Democrats are just about finished as a national party for the next 30 to 40 years.

This, no doubt, will be surprising news for the Democrats. For decades, they have been able to pander to minorities and women and to use those voting blocks to build majorities that were insurmountable by the rest of the electorate.

For example, to overcome a 10 million+ vote Democrat lead among African-Americans, the Republicans typically needed 65% of the rest of the vote just to break even. But those days are over. In the future, the Democrats may be able to raise a few votes from the local cemetery, but there is no way they can bring back America's 61 million victims of abortion.

And that's what will decide the future of the Democratic Party.

Fact No. 1. The harsh reality is that the victims of abortion are disproportionately Democrat. Twenty-five states – mainly Republican red states – have had just 10% of all abortions. That's where most of pro-life America lives. The other 25 states account for 90% of all abortions. With a few exceptions, they have been traditional Democrat blue states.

For example, the top 12 states had 73% of all abortions. That fact alone cost Hillary Clinton 103 electoral votes in 2016. Here's how:

Five of these states – New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Michigan, Massachusetts and Ohio – lost 9 electoral votes just because of population declines due mainly to abortion. Three more of these states – Texas, Florida, and Georgia – gained 6 electoral votes because of population growth, but all three voted for Trump in 2016.

Five states – Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina – voted for Obama in 2012 but switched to Trump in 2016. The impact of abortion on old reliable voting blocks had everything to do with it.

Altogether this cost Hillary a total of 103 electoral votes. If Hillary had won these states, her victory would have been assured.

Eventually even big Democrat states like New York will be vulnerable. New York, for example, has more abortions each year than deaths from all other causes. The majority of them are minority babies and presumably future Democrats.

As a result, black births in New York City dropped in half between 1990 and 2010. New York Hispanics continue to have high abortion rates, while hard-working, blue collar families in upstate red counties keep having babies.

It will take some time in a state with a large minority population like New York, but the demographics of abortion make it inevitable. Sooner or later, the piper must be paid.

Fact No. 2: Catering to women on issues like abortion appears on the surface to give the Democrats a 24 point lead among women compared to an 8 point edge for Republicans among men. That's what the pollsters tell us.

But the demographics of abortion turn that fact upside down.

The truth is: half of all aborted babies are women who will never get a chance to vote. And that means more missing voters and declining margins for Democrats.

To estimate the impact of this on future voting, I adjusted for the fact that you have to be 18 years old to vote, and for the fact that only 60% actually vote.

Given those adjustments, the 2016 total of 61 million abortions adds up to 26 million missing voters, divided more or less evenly between men and women.

But when you account for the differences in how both sexes voted, that meant Hillary's margin was cut by 3 million votes in 2016 while Trump lost only 1 million.

Net loss for Hillary: 2 million votes. All because of past abortions. If all of those aborted baby girls had been around to vote, Hillary would be president today.

Fact No. 3. Nationally, abortion has taken the lives of 21 million future black voters. At least 14 million of these would be of voting age today. If they had voted like other blacks in 2016, Hillary would have won by 6 million more votes.

So don't let anyone tell you that Hillary Clinton didn't pay a very high price for her aggressive support of abortion on demand over the last 26 years.

Tragically, so have African-Americans. Black population growth in the U.S. has declined from 1.7% a year before 2000 to a mere 0.52% in the 18 years since. That's a decline of 69.4%.

Total black population hovers around 43 million. But without abortion, it would be 73 million, including those babies who would already have been born to those who were aborted. That's called "the echo effect," and it is the main reason why the impact of abortion on American voting will last for decades even if all abortions stopped tomorrow.

What is appalling is that the U.S. Supreme Court never gave a thought to this impact on future generations when they decided Roe v. Wade.

There is no question about it. America's African-American community has paid and will continue to pay a very high price for the luxury of abortion on demand – socially, economically, spiritually and politically. It is right up there with slavery and the Nazi holocaust.

Fact No. 4. A similar analysis of younger voters 18 to 49 confirms both the short and long term impact of abortion on current and future voting. This is the group that has been hardest hit by the abortion toll, which has taken the lives of 28.3% of the generation under age 50.

The 18 to 29 group voted heavily for Hillary in 2016, and the older segments less so, but altogether these missing younger voters would have contributed an additional margin of 3 million votes to Hillary in 2016 – more than enough to guarantee a victory.

That didn't include another 22 million missing voters under 18. They represent a loss of another 1.3 million edge for the Democrats in future national elections. Nor did it include any allowance for the expected echo effect – the future voters who would otherwise have been born to those who were aborted.

No matter how you look at it, all of those aborted babies are making a big difference today, and will continue to make an even bigger difference over the next 40 to 50 years as the cumulative total of abortions – and their echo effect on the next generation – continues to climb.

And nobody can stop this. Not even Hillary.

The supreme irony is that America's aborted generation of 61 million is making a growing difference by no longer being around to vote like a block for those who promoted abortion as the answer to all the world's ills.

Their voices are not lost. Their silence speaks for them.

# # #

Dennis Howard has been writing since 1950 and turned to marketing and market research in 1960. For the last 26 years he has been tracking abortion data as President of the Movement for a Better America and is still active at 88 years of age.

© Dennis M. Howard


The views expressed by RenewAmerica columnists are their own and do not necessarily reflect the position of RenewAmerica or its affiliates.
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Dennis M. Howard

(Dennis M. Howard passed away on May 6, 2021. His obituary can be read here.

Dennis M. Howard is founder and president of The Movement for a Better America, a non-profit, pro-life educational organization. Before starting MBA in 1995, he had a long and successful career in journalism and creative marketing. He has been writing since 1950, when he helped launch The Sun Herald of Kansas City, America's last attempt at publishing a Catholic daily... (more)


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