Dear Friends and Patriots,

Is the news distressing you? Do you find yourself fearing an uncertain future, solely due to the news of the past few days? I offer a few thoughts that could help.

All Eyes Are On Iran, waiting to see what they intend to do.

Understanding that Iran's regime is a fundamentalist theocracy, their intent should be obvious. They don't intend to ever yield, no matter what Israel or the U.S. does. Now that a war has started, the best that may happen is a continuation of the Israel-Hamas tit-for-tat strike model.

I note that history reveals no evidence that air power alone can defeat any nation. It's not possible to subdue a nation with either aircraft or missiles. In Iran's case, any substantive change will come only if there is an uprising of the people and they are able to subdue their military overlords. If the mullahs remain in charge, there will be no surrender and no peace overtures.

In the end, the Iranian people will have their say. Whatever they do or not do will determine the eventual outcome of this conflict. The concern we should all have is escalation.

If anything causes the current situation to expand outside the boundaries of Israel and Iran, things could spiral out of control. Our State Department should be engaged now in ensuring all outside parties understand the dangers of jumping in on either side. Russia seems to understand, and has yet to engage.

There is another concern as well. We all have to understand and appreciate the economics of war. It's one thing to commit all national resources to a war effort when your nation is the one attacked. It's an entirely different situation when you're the attacker and have to deal with the cost of war. Neither Israel, which is still committed in Gaza, nor the U.S., which is committed to a quick end to all ongoing conflicts, can sustain a protracted war effort. There's no popular will for it here, and as days pass there will be less and less in Israel.

Iran is led by religious zealots, but smart ones, too. They understand everything said above and know their best course of action is to retaliate to the best of their ability and to wait. In time both the U.S. and Israel will be forced to abandon the current level of conflict. The financial and logistics costs are just too great. Barring some dramatic event that changes the situation in an unalterable way, Iran's leadership will just pursue their present course. They will not surrender. They will not yield. They consider it a religious obligation to absorb all the Little Satan and Great Satan throw at them, until both Satans are ultimately defeated.

Our hope should be that our and the Israeli governments know the mindset of Iranian leadership and devise plans to use that knowledge to win. If we and Israel do that, perhaps the war will have a favorable conclusion. But, my contention is the real deciders are the Iranian people, not us. Taking out the mullahs may be feasible, but may not be the right strategy. It could offend a large section of the Iranian population and backfire on us. For Israel and the U.S. to prevail we must encourage the Iranian people, keep up the pressure campaign on Iran's leaders, and ... just wait and pray.

In Liberty,

Steve