Steve A. Stone
What the post GBU-57 world could look like
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By Steve A. Stone
June 23, 2025

Dear Friends and Patriots,

Did that little thing President Trump did surprise you? If it did, it's because you haven't broken the "Trumpese" code. When he announced, "I'll make a decision sometime in the next two weeks," what did you think he meant? I understand a bit about how Trump does military things. He tries to never telegraph his intent or plans. When I heard him reference his decision on his decision, I understood it to mean "I'm going to do something one way or another and it'll happen between now and two weeks from now." He loves surprises, especially when he thinks he's lulled an adversary into a false sense of security. Afterward, it's always the same words, with minor variations:

"Hey, I tried to warn you, but you wouldn't listen." Trump doesn't lie, but you have to pay attention to the small words and comma placements or you'll too often miss his true meaning.

That GBU-56 is also known as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) . Sometimes referred to as a "bunker buster" or an "earthquake bomb," it's a 30,000 pounder, with a hardened nose that allows it to burrow over 150 feet in the ground when dropped from high altitude. It has gyro-controlled fin stabilization and GPS guidance, which means it only needs to be dropped in the vicinity of a designated target. The guidance system will position the bomb over the target and will ensure it enters the ground within 3 feet of the GPS coordinates. The weight of the bomb dropped from a great height, aided by the hardened nose, ensures the bomb burrows to below its designed depth unless it encounters reinforced concrete or solid hard rock first. If there is a reinforced concrete structure at any depth shallower than 150 feet, the GBU-57 will slam through it before detonating. The fuse mechanism ensures the bomb detonates as soon as it comes to rest.

I learned about the GBU-57 several years ago, while reading up on the Iranian nuclear labs we're discussing today. Even at that time the strategy regarding the employment of that bomb was a hot topic. Israel has struck at Iranian nuclear facilities before, which forced the Iranians to bury their facilities deep underground. I'm certain they felt safe if it's true their main assembly facility is 300 feet under a mountain, but maybe they don't feel that way today. Designing a new bomb that could penetrate to 300 feet or deeper is most likely possible, but our people decided to figure out how to get twice the effectiveness out of our current capability. It seemed obvious – just drop two of the same bomb on the very same coordinates in rapid succession. The first bomb would penetrate to whatever depth it could, then detonate. The second bomb would be timed to enter the hole made by the first bomb before the earth had time to settle after it detonates. For a very brief period after a major blast the debris is almost liquid in its behavior, offering very little resistance at all to that second bomb. Theoretically, by using a "stacked" bomb strike the GBU-57 can reach the required 300 foot depth needed to destroy such a facility. The question today really isn't "Can it?" Today our question is "Did it?" It may be quite some time before anyone in the west truly knows.

There is another question that begs to be answered, "What's next?" That question is being asked all over the world today. What's next, indeed! I predict we'll see answers very, very soon. In fact, I believe we're already seeing them.

In physics we are taught Newton's Third Law of Motion: Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. When it comes to war and politics every action can have dozens or even hundreds of reactions, and sometimes they are much greater than the initial action. If you consider that our Air Force supposedly just dropped 180,000 pounds of C6 high explosives on Iran, the thought of the reaction potential is ... very, very scary.

As a rational person, I truly believe that If I can think of something ... anything ... that my thought is always late to the party – that many others have already thought it and done a better job at it than me. That's why I never claim to have an original thought or understanding. I could be the first one to tell YOU something, but I'm not the first to tell of anything – by far. You're asking what I mean. And, you know I'll break it down for you. Here goes.

What will the world's reaction be to the US air strikes? The question truly isn't, "...will there be?" but "... how widespread, and how violent?" Those queries are on the minds of everyone involved in national security in every nation today. Do you think the Trump administration didn't already ask and predict the answers? My thought is they did, and they aren't afraid of the answers. I'll touch a bit on the ultimate question of " ... but, what if they're wrong?" a bit later.

One of the almost certain results of the bombing raids is to inflame hostilities between Muslim communities and those of both Jews and Christians. The Muslim radical groups will never see the air strikes the way Donald Trump does – proactive preventive measures to minimize an imminent nuclear threat. Those radical groups will instead consider them to be acts of war by infidels against the interests of all Muslims. Yes, there will be calm voices in the greater Muslim world, voices that will appeal for peace, but those voices will be vilified by the more reactionary who will shout them down. Trump and his people know that, too. In fact, they are counting on it.

One fact of the past several years we are all certain of, even if we can't prove it individually, is the one concerning the influx of unaccompanied military-aged men who streamed across our southern border, then were turned loose inside our country. Who among them were threats? How many of them came across the border with the intent to join in sleeper cells for later activation? How many are lone wolf terrorists in the waiting? Just how big IS that threat, anyway? Yes, there are many, many questions, and the truth is ... up to now, there have been almost no answers. But, now we see the stage set in a way that the answers are almost sure to come. If there truly are Islamist terrorists living among us, they are almost certain to make themselves known very soon. They absolutely will strike. Count on it. And, count on our intelligence agencies, too. At this moment there are several dozen agents doing nothing but monitoring every communications method that exists, listening, reading, filtering ... looking for any telltale indication that two or more people in our country intend to strike back in some way. At this very moment there are agents in Wayne, MI trying to determine who's behind today's attack on the Crosspoint Community Church. There is a nationwide red alert throughout law enforcement communities to be on guard against this very kind of attack.

The reaction to the air raids are expected. Don't be surprised if there is violence near you. I can assure you that your local police and sheriff's departments won't be surprised at all. They are waiting and anticipating.

The nature of terrorism itself makes it very difficult to predict precisely where and when such an attack could take place. Lone wolves are the greatest concern, because they will not communicate their intentions to anyone. They're detected at the point of engagement. Today's attack was presumed done by a lone wolf. The church members got lucky. He was seen, engaged, and killed by an alert security guard. If that terrorist had done his homework a bit better, he'd have picked a church that didn't have security. If you're wondering now if your church or synagogue has security you should stop reading and make a phone call to find out. It's a very sad reflection of our times that almost all such religious establishments have to be locked and have security cameras whenever no one is present, and have armed security whenever people gather there. Will we ever get back to where we used to be?

If Trump and his people are at least as smart as me (I'm certain they're way ahead) they will have anticipated the domestic situation we're going to see. But, they'll think of it as the means to answer the questions posed three paragraphs above. The thought occurred to me as soon as I heard a report that indicated Trump was considering a bomb strike – He's going after the radicals hiding among us. He's going to flush them out into the open so they can be dealt with. That's part of the equal and opposite reaction to the presence of danger average Americans are in because terrorists were allowed to roam free among us. They have to be exposed and neutralized. Pay attention, and understand what's going on.

There is the possibility they're wrong in assuming there will be a domestic terrorist backlash. I don't think they are, but the possibility does exist that the "sleepers" and lone wolves will mostly watch and wait until the country relaxes again. That's what the smartest terrorist would do. But, think about that for a minute and understand that those who plan terror operations may be cunning and smart, but those who carry them out are mostly ideologues who see themselves as heroes and martyrs. If the terrorists among us are largely quiet, it's because they were trained to go "active" only when directed. That would be very bad if that's the case. But knowing it can't possibly be the general situation, Trump's strategy appears to be two-pronged – smoke out the true lone wolves and the radicals who haven't been trained to wait, then deal with the rest as they're detected and found. That's where our intel people will earn their money – by monitoring all communications and detecting the activation orders as they are given. It may sound impossible; like a crime thriller, and not real. Trust me when I tell you it's real, and it's almost a standardized procedure when our intel and federal law enforcement are allowed to do their jobs instead of chasing down people who just happened to show up in DC on one specific day.

There are even more great questions. Below is a list, with short answers to help explain.

  • Who should be concerned? If you're a real American you should be. The very nature of terrorism is to be random and unpredictable. That means – as long as there's a domestic terror threat, none of us can guarantee our safety.

  • How bad can it get? With the potential of several thousand terrorists roaming about the country we have to assume it can get very, very bad. As bad as several incidents across the country every day. The key word in the question is "can," not "will." No one knows what "will" happen. We have to deal with our future one day at a time.

  • When will it end? Another great question that has no correct answer. I will provide one, though. It will end only when the perpetrators of terror renounce their ways. Because, at its heart, this terror campaign is somewhat religious in nature and can be seen as an extension of over 1,300 years of history, my thought is ... as long as there is any group that believes all other people on the planet are their inferiors, this will continue. It can only end when institutionalized arrogance is abandoned.

  • When can we relax and return to something more like "before?" My recommended response is – Never, if you're smart.

  • Lastly...should I be afraid? Afraid? Be afraid? What kind of American are you? Never, ever live your life in fear. That's what our enemies want. As long as we are unafraid we can never be defeated as a nation. Need I elaborate?

If you're asking yourself, "If Trump knows and has thought about all this, then why did he approve the air strikes, and why is he risking a world-wide active jihad?" That's great thinking! My own conjecture is he approved the strikes because the worst of all situations is to have a pariah state in the world that is able to threaten the peace and security of the rest of the world. In his view, Iran was almost at that point in time where dealing with them in a non-nuclear way was going to be impossible. Today's strikes may be hard to internalize and accept, but ... they also weren't nuclear. What would YOU do?

The domestic side of that; the terrorist sleepers among us ... I believe Trump considers it prudent to start dealing with them now and not wait. It's going to be painful, but we either take our beatings now, or we risk taking worse beatings later. Having endured corporal punishment on several occasions, I recommend just biting on a bullet and getting it over with. If you're going to have to deal with something, someday, why not deal with it now and be done with it?

Do you have a better idea of the future now, or did all this fall on deaf ears? Let me know.

One last thought – the Boy Scout motto (remember when there was such a thing?) was BE PREPARED. In all respects – be prepared. We might have a very disturbing few months ahead. Buck up and face it. It's going to be "interesting times."

Everything said above applies in every western nation. No one will be left out.

In Liberty,

Steve

© Steve A. Stone

 

The views expressed by RenewAmerica columnists are their own and do not necessarily reflect the position of RenewAmerica or its affiliates.
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Steve A. Stone

Steve A. Stone is and always will be a Texan, though he's lived outside that great state for all but 3 years since 1970, remembering it as it was, not as it is. He currently resides in Lower Alabama with a large herd of furry dependents, who all appear to be registered Democrats. Steve retired from the U.S. Coast Guard reserves in 2011, after serving over 22 years in uniform over the span of four decades. His service included duty on two U.S. Navy attack submarines, and one Navy and two U.S. Coast Guard Reserve Units. He is now retired after working as a senior civil servant for the U.S. Navy for over 31 years. Steve is a member of the Alabama Minority GOP and Common Sense Campaign. He is also a life member of SUBVETS, Inc., the Submarine League, and the NRA. In 2018, Steve has written and published 10 books.

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